Saturday, October 6, 2012
Last Week's Jobs Posting
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released today news that the unemployment rate had dropped from 8.1% in August to 7.8% in September. Awesome, right?
Maybe not.
Let's analyze: the report says that according to the Payroll Survey, we gained only 114,000 jobs in September. Also the labor force participation rate has held flat at 63.6%. Then, later in the report we are told that the labor force grew by 873,000 new jobs according to the Household Survey.
Anyone else confused? How did unemployment fall to under 8% for the first time since 2009 if labor participation rate is unchanged? And how do we have such radically different job counts in the same report?
The reasons are why Obama may be in for some bad news if people latch on to these numbers too much.
The Household Survey and the Payroll Survey are two different surveys that attempt to analyze the same data from different perspectives. The Household Survey contacts approximately 60,000 households as to their current employment status and includes the declared self-employed, family workers, agriculture jobs, receiving any money for any work, and those who are absent from their jobs without pay. The Payroll Survey is of 141,000 businesses and government agencies and includes none of the "jobs" I just listed.
Though they often track well together, you can probably see why results from one can dramatically differ from the other. Beyond the sample size differences, the way the data is reported in the Household Survey can skew wildly depending on a number of factors. In fact, the Household Survey is fairly volatile, leaving lots of outliers in the tracing of employment trends.
My intuition is that this month was an outlier. Either the respondents to the survey over-reported jobs or the smaller sample size skewed the results.
If this month's number is relied on by the Obama administration to prove a recovery and it is belied by next month's numbers, It could end up costing Obama the election.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
From the Atlantic
For those who don't have time, here are a few choice quotes:
"Sometimes a policy is so reckless or immoral that supporting its backer as "the lesser of two evils" is unacceptable. If enough people start refusing to support any candidate who needlessly terrorizes innocents, perpetrates radical assaults on civil liberties, goes to war without Congress, or persecutes whistleblowers, among other misdeeds, post-9/11 excesses will be reined in."
"I can respect the position that the tactical calculus I've laid out is somehow mistaken, though I tire of it being dismissed as if so obviously wrong that no argument need be marshaled against it."
"But if you're a Democrat who has affirmed that you'd never vote for an opponent of gay equality, or a torturer, or someone caught using racial slurs, how can you vote for the guy who orders drone strikes that kill hundreds of innocents and terrorizes thousands more -- and who constantly hides the ugliest realities of his policy (while bragging about the terrorists it kills) so that Americans won't even have all the information sufficient to debate the matter for themselves?
How can you vilify Romney as a heartless plutocrat unfit for the presidency, and then enthusiastically recommend a guy who held Bradley Manning in solitary and killed a 16-year-old American kid? If you're a utilitarian who plans to vote for Obama, better to mournfully acknowledge that you regard him as the lesser of two evils, with all that phrase denotes."
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Voting Philosophy: Part 4
The Problem with the Two Party System
The Problem with the Vote
Or the other guy who runs on a platform of ending the war, improving infrastructure, abolishing the 14% sales tax, and instituting a 90% tax on anyone making over $100,000 a year. Every time he will push through that 90% tax on the "rich" because he now has the people's mandate. Nevermind the fact that the people just really hated that 14% sales tax and wanted the potholes on Main Street fixed up.
Every time we vote for the bastards in office, they are imbued with more power to keep doing what they're doing--the good and the bad. Every time we elect someone new with a message full of vim and vigor, we get the vim along with the vigor.
I know a lot of you are voting for Obama because you support his social message. You believe that Romney will roll back the progress we've made in vital areas and that his influence as president will threaten many of our dearly held social causes. Nevermind what Obama will do with the capital gains tax or the rights of terrorists; more important things are at stake.
I know a lot of you who are voting for Romney are terrified about what Obama will do with health care, with the economy, and maybe with foreign policy. You fear that Obama will bury innovation in regulations, that his pursuit of clean energy will make gas and cars even less affordable, and that his healthcare policies will leave us all as wards of the state. Never mind what Romney does to gays in the military or how much he opens our government to corporate and money influences; more important things are at stake.
Yet a vote for either one of these guys for the reasons you want him is (in our current system) a vote for the reasons you don't. I can't support either of their policies with any conscience because the things that I don't agree with them on are that much worse.
So I will be placing my vote and my voice and my small shred of electoral power in someone who supports the things that I do, that recognizes and regularly vocalizes his understanding of the limitations of government, and who isn't beholden to the moneyed power behind the throne that is the two party system.
I'm voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson and Judge James Gray in November, because it's a vote I can stand behind.
Voting Philosophy: Part 3
Healthcare? Managed to pass a huge bill that has made absolutely no one happy. The process it followed to get passed was all but completely illegal, it may actually increase the cost of healthcare for almost everyone involved, and it served as the ultimate gadfly to coalesce an unhappy right into a powerful voting bloc.
International relations? Strained at best. Obama skips out on meetings with world leaders and allies to appear on Jimmy Kimmel and the View. At times he seems to care more about posturing and electioneering than attending to the duties demanded of him as a world leader. It's not to say he doesn't care about riots in Libya or Syria, but when he calls casualties "road bumps" he comes across that way.
No bid contracts? Actually up in the past 4 years. Guantanamo Bay? Still open for business. Regulations? Increased. Government spending? Dramatically up. The deficit? Growing at a record rate. The economy? Still tanking.
I know a lot of these issues he has little to no control over. So let's look at some things he does have control over.
Extrajudicial detention? Obama has argued consistently for the National Defense Authorization Act which allows him to ignore things like the 4th and 5th amendments. Habeas Corpus has been suspended for countless combatants and even American citizens. Indefinite detention is now a power that the president can unilaterally employ.
Extrajudicial executions? The president has authorized and defended the use of drone strikes against enemy combatants and American citizens alike. The Defense Department has defended the use of drones saying that there is no geographic limitation on the use of drones and that "US citizens do not enjoy immunity" from targeting. They argue that such executions are not illegal because they are used in self defense. Considering these practices have been used against mourners at funerals and killing rescuers for injured on the ground, one must question their reasoning and a president that would support and condone these practices. The existence of a "hit list" is likewise terrifying to me.
Respect for States Rights? Well he says he wants to leave marriage equality to the states, right? But when he's confronted with an actual issue of states rights, Obama and his administration have failed miserably. Several states have approved medical marijuana and have licensed select dispensaries and clinics to provide the substance to those with a prescription. In response, Obama has specially ordered his ATF, DEA, IRS, and DOJ to raid these clinics and arrest anyone operating there. They confiscate goods, money, and property through asset forfeiture, costing legal business owners hundreds of thousands of dollars. All of this is done though they the dispensary operators are working legally under state law, his administration has said that federal drug law trumps the issue.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Voting Philosophy: Part 2
Voting Philosophy: Part 1
A good friend of mine who works for the Tax Foundation and whom I met through a summer internship in Washington posted something political on his wall. He explained why he would be voting for the libertarian ticket in November, and why he thinks other people should as well. Seeing as the fellowship we both attended was sponsored by the Institute for Humane Studies and is an organization dedicated to the spread of free market ideas, libertarian philosophy, and principles of classical liberal thought, this was unsurprising. Seeing as I (occasionally) write in a blog called "The Sane Libertarian," it was unsurprising that I would share such views and plan to vote for Gary Johnson and Jim Gray.
However, I have gotten a good deal of response to that posting, both on my Facebook wall, through messages from friends, and even from some family members. Several of them wonder how I could, in this MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL ELECTIONS (at least that is the consensus), vote for anyone but their favored candidate. It is utterly unconscionable to many that I could "waste" my vote and support someone who will obviously not win this election. What is worse, though, is the idea that I could not use my vote to help stop the evil of whatever party they are opposed to.
Since I get this argument from both sides, and friends on both sides have asked why I am voting the way I am, I have decided to lay out some of my voting philosophy here. I will also explain why I will vote for neither Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, nor any other candidates the Democrats or Republicans nominate any time soon.
My First Presidential Election
I turned 18 in 2001 and just missed taking part in the epic, game-changing election of 2000. It was the first year I became truly aware of politics, and it couldn't have been a more exciting time. Book after book analyzing the election where Al Gore lost to George W. Bush in a court case convinced me how important every vote truly is. If an election can turn on a single state and come down to a handful of votes in a single county, and then those votes can be accepted or rejected by the highest courts, then truly it matters whether every person votes.
In 2004, then, i was ready. I was in my final year of college having majored in government and philosophy, so I was more well-read on the subject. I knew the ins and outs of the electoral college, and I knew the importance of researching my candidates. I read everything I could get my hands on to learn what Bush and Kerry were all about.
I read Bush's biography and thought he sounded like a decent person in a tough job. I thought Kerry was a bit out of touch with the everyman, but that his intelligence would serve him well. I hated many of the policies Bush had pursued in the aftermath of his wars, the creation of the Department of Homeland Security and the compromises that had been made when it came to our civil liberties. But then, I thought Kerry would do no better. Foreign policy was the topic du jour, and I truly believed that Kerry couldn't handle the job.
So I voted to reelect President Bush.
(Cue the shaming now.)
For the next four years, I had to live with that decision. Every time President Bush passed another policy that abrogated human rights, every time he gaffed it up and diminished our international reputation, every time he backed legislation like No Child Left Behind, the Federal Marriage Amendment, and the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act, I cringed. But I also felt responsible. I had placed my name, my vote, my integrity behind this man. I had been one of the millions who gave him the power to do these things. All because I believed Kerry would have been worse.
I still believe that to be true. As painful as parts of Bush's presidency were, I truly believe that a Kerry/Edwards administration would have been besieged by worse decisions, scandals, and corruption.
But I had to admit to voting to keep in power someone I did not believe in. I voted for a man who was willing to compromise on the integrity of our Constitution in the name of Homeland Security. I voted for a man who expanded the power and spending of the federal government, even as he called himself a compassionate conservative. I voted for someone I was already disappointed in just to keep someone else out of office.
And I regretted that vote.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Women and Politics
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Privileges versus Rights
There was a very interesting and thought-provoking article published in Wednesday's Wall Street Journal by Lawrence Lindsey. As the former director of the National Economic Council, Lindsey's an experienced and credentialed economist, and he uses many numbers and economic debates to make his points, but at the heart of this article Lindsey tackles a question of political philosophy. Specifically, he discusses the difference between privileges and rights, and the trouble our government seems to be having distinguishing between the two.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
BOA Irony
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Endorsements
Friday, January 27, 2012
Education in the SOTU
Obama is right to praise the teachers in this country. It's truly a noble profession mentoring and guiding the young. (I have loved every experience I've had teaching I've taught summer classes of 6-12 year olds, tutored in high school, mentored writing and communications in college, and TAed in graduate school. I've also just signed up to mentor middle school students in developing their writing skills over the next two months. So I've been there!) And over the past few years our teachers have made countless sacrifices from using their own money to supply their classrooms with vital supplies, giving up their free time to mentor struggling students, and many have even still been fired for lack of funds.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
SOTU and Scientific Funding
How to manage this new technology may actually lead to very legitimate regulations as they create a serious problem of negative externalities. (I'm a libertarian, not an anarchist, so I do believe in government existing for a lot of very good reasons. However, when government expands far beyond these select reasons, I believe, is where it loses its moral and political legitimacy.)
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Drunk Blogging the State of the Union
The Sane Libertarian
So what is a sane libertarian?
Well, I imagine a sane libertarian has much in common with a sane Democrat or a sane Republican, a sane liberal or a sane conservative.
That is, he or she has arrived at a set of core political beliefs after careful and reasoned consideration of the available facts. His or her philosophy is built on a foundation of principles and values that the sane person thinks are worth protecting or striving toward both as an individual and as a member of society. His or her positions on politics and policy are the result of debate and research, rather than emotion or loyalty to a party.
I have spent the majority of my life dedicated to the study and understanding of political actions and beliefs. I have a graduate degree in political theory and American politics. I have worked in political jobs in the nonprofit sector, the public sector, and the political sector. I analyzed health care and social security solvency and attended hearings at the Capitol. I have worked as a public servant investigating identity theft and fraud. I ran a campaign for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
None of that really matters though, because trust me, there are plenty of insane people in all of those jobs.
There are people who have never considered their positions, never questioned their core beliefs. There are plenty of people who have no idea that many partisan political positions are based on fundamental conceptions of human nature and human society, so they’ve never asked where their views come from. There are even more that just “know what they know” and vote the party line without questioning what people stand for and why they behave the way that they do.
That to me is insane.